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Russian Berries & Fruits Market Overview, 2018-2024

AGATA MARKETS

Data on the berries and fruits market volume, in particular the demand for raspberries and strawberries in 2018-2021, as well as the forecast by product categories until 2024 in rubles, tons and rubles per kilogram

Russian Berries & Fruits Market Overview, 2018-2024

AGATA MARKETS
Data on the berries and fruits market volume, in particular the demand for raspberries and strawberries in 2018-2021, as well as the forecast by product categories until 2024 in rubles, tons and rubles per kilogram
повышение выручки предприятия на рынке парфюмерии и косметики
How much on average did high-income consumers spend on berries and fruits in Russia in 2020? We answer this and other questions in our overview, which includes a number of indicators both for the market as a whole and for some product categories. In this publication, we share only some of the research results, and you can find the full structure of the report at the end of the article.

The overview includes external data integrated in AGATA. It helps manufacturing companies make informed decisions about all 4Ps of the marketing mix. We, in turn, collect external data at the request of the client.

Berries & Fruits Market Size

According to Rosstat, among the highly profitable group of the population*, the capacity of the market for berries and fruits in Russia in 2020 in the leading, Central, Federal District, amounted to almost 85 billion rubles. In second place, with a huge lag, is the Volga Federal District with 34.08 billion rubles. The North-West is in third place, where consumers with a high level of income spent 32.26 billion rubles on berries and fruits during 2020.
*Based on population share. For 20 percent groups, the shares of the population were obtained within each subject for 5 income groups: from the lowest to the highest income level
Market value for berries and fruits in Russia (high-income population), 2020, billion rubles
Diagram 1. Market value for berries and fruits in Russia (high-income population), 2020, billion rubles
Source: AGATA based on the Rosstat data
As for per capita spending, in the Far Eastern Federal District, consumers with a high income accounted for 7.989 rubles, while residents of the Ural Federal District spent on average about 6.024 rubles on berries and fruits in 2020. The lowest amount is in the Volga Federal District - only 4.543 rubles per year per consumer.
Berries and fruits average spent capita/year in Russia, for a high-income population, 2020, rubles
Diagram 2. Berries and fruits average spent capita/year in Russia, for a high-income population, 2020, rubles
Source: AGATA based on the Rosstat data

Raspberry / Market Size

The raspberry market volume in Russia amounted to 181,64 thousand tons in 2020, which is 3% higher than in 2019, when the market volume was 176,30 thousand tons*. In general, in the period 2018-2020, the demand for raspberries showed a positive trend. The main volume of the market is formed by domestic production - about 99%.

*Market volume was calculated as the difference between domestic production and export, taking into account imports: Domestic production - Export + Import = Market volume

Volume and growth rates of the raspberry market in Russia, 2018-2020, tons

Diagram 3. Volume and growth rates of the raspberry market in Russia, 2018-2020, tons

Source: AGATA based on the FAO, FCS and retail chains data
The average price for raspberries in Russia in 2021 was 2.394 rubles per 1 kg, which is 35% higher than in 2019 (1.770 rubles), and almost 2.000 rubles higher than the price of 2018, when a kilogram of raspberries cost an average of 596 rubles.

*Price dynamics 2018-2020 built on the basis of the growth rate of prices for imported products.

Average selling price of raspberries in Russia, 2018-2021 in rubles/kg

Diagram 4. Average selling price of raspberries in Russia, 2018-2021 in rubles/kg

Source: AGATA based on the FAO, FCS and retail chains data

Raspberry / Importers

The main imports of raspberries come from three countries: the Republic of Moldova, Belarus, Mexico - 92% of imports. Supplies from Kenya, China, Kyrgyzstan and Mexico are actively growing - the growth is more than 100%. Despite the fact that the share of the Republic of Moldova has grown significantly over the past three years - from 16% to 34%, in absolute terms, imports decreased by 268 thousand tons.

A similar picture is observed with Belarus. So, the share of the country for the period from 2018 to 2020 has almost doubled. However, deliveries in tons fell by 83%.
Structure of raspberry imports to Russia, by country, 2018-2020, tons
Diagram 5. Structure of raspberry imports to Russia, by country, 2018-2020, tons
Source: AGATA based on the FCS data

Raspberry / Optimistic forecast

As part of the forecast of the raspberry market, the basic scenario of the development of the Russian economy was used. The forecast was based on data on changes in the agricultural market in physical terms and the consumer market in monetary terms.

The optimistic scenario assumes that the market dynamics will be based on the correction of the data of the Ministry of Economic Development, taking into account the historical data on the rate of market growth and the forecasted indicators of the Ministry of Economic Development for the consumer market.

According to our calculations, under an optimistic development scenario, in the period 2021-2024, the volume of the raspberry market in Russia will show insignificant growth rates and will reach 184,75 thousand tons in 2024.
Optimistic forecast for the volume of the raspberry market in Russia, 2021-2024, tons
Diagram 6. Optimistic forecast for the volume of the raspberry market in Russia, 2021-2024, tons
Source: AGATA based on data from the Ministry of Economic Development

Strawberry / Market Size

In 2020, the volume of the strawberry market in Russia reached 300,5 thousand tons, which is 19.1% more than in 2019, when consumers purchased only 252,3 thousand tons. The volume of the market is formed mostly by domestic production - 86%.
*Market volume was calculated as the difference between domestic production and export, taking into account imports: Domestic production - Export + Import = Market volume
Volume and growth rates of the strawberry market in Russia, 2018-2020, tons

Diagram 7. Volume and growth rates of the strawberry market in Russia, 2018-2020, tons

Source: AGATA based on the FAO, FCS, retail chains data
Based on the Rosstat data, the average selling price of strawberries in the Russian Federation in 2021 was 1.199,60 rubles per kg, which is almost half a percent lower than the price of last year, when it was possible to buy strawberries for an average of 1.203,86 rubles/kg. The largest jump in cost occurred in 2019, when the price per kilogram rose from 841 to 1.151 rubles. Price dynamics 2018-2020 built on the basis of the growth rate of prices for imported products.
Average selling price of strawberries in Russia, 2018-2021 in rubles / kg

Diagram 8. Average selling price of strawberries in Russia, 2018-2021 in rubles / kg

Source: AGATA based on the FAO, FCS, retail chains data

Strawberry / Importers

According to the FCS, the main countries importing strawberries are Belarus - 24%, Azerbaijan - 5% and Egypt - 4%. At the same time, supplies of the Republic of Belarus to Russia for the period 2018-2020 decreased by 2 times
Structure of strawberry imports to Russia, by country, 2018-2020, tons
Diagram 9. Structure of strawberry imports to Russia, by country, 2018-2020, tons
Source: AGATA based on the FCS data

Strawberry / Optimistic forecast

According to the optimistic scenario based on the data of the country's economic development, from 2020 to 2024 the strawberry market in Russia will grow 1,84 times, on average 15% -17% growth rate annually, and by the end of 2024 it will amount to 553 thousand tons.
Optimistic forecast the strawberry market volume in Russia, 2021-2024, tons
Diagram 10. Optimistic forecast the strawberry market volume in Russia, 2021-2024, tons
Source: AGATA based on data from the Ministry of Economic Development

Full structure of the report on berries 2018-2024

1. Market of berries and fruits in general
1.1. Market capacity by high-income group of the population as a whole and by federal district
1.2. Number of consumers, mln people, in general and by federal district
1.3. Average expenditures of the population on berries and fruits in the Russian Federation, rubles / year, in general and in the Federal District
1.4. Description of the calculation method
1.5. Number of target outlets by hyper- and supermarkets, in general and by federal district
2. Avocado market
2.1. Avocado market volume in the Russian Federation, 2018-2020, in tons and rubles
2.2. Description of the calculation method
2.3. Avocado market structure by product category
2.4. Market base forecast 2024
2.5. Market forecast optimistic 2024
2.6. Market Forecast by Avocado Product Category 2024
2.7. Forecast of the average selling price of avocado, RUB / kg, 2024
2.8. Seasonality of avocado imports
2.9. Avocado imports by country
2.10. Avocado import by manufacturer
2.11. Avocado import by recipient company in Russia
2.12. Segmentation of recipients by specialization (specialists, retail)
2.13. Avocado consumption by a high-income group of the population of the Russian Federation, by product categories and federal districts
2.14. Sales of avocados by outlet (kg per outlet)

An overview of the avocado market can be found here
3. Raspberry market
3.1. Raspberry market volume in tons
3.2. Average selling price of raspberries in Russia, RUB / kg
3.3. Description of the calculation method
3.4. Raspberry market forecast, baseline and optimistic until 2024
3.5. Forecast of the average price of raspberries, basic and optimistic, RUB / kg, until 2024
3.6. The main producers of raspberries in Russia
3.7. Raspberry imports by country
3.8. Raspberry imports by manufacturer
3.9. Raspberry import by recipient company in Russia
3.10. Consumption of raspberries in Russia by high-income group of the population, tonnes in the Federal District
3.11. Sales of raspberries by outlets (kg per outlet)
4. Strawberry market
4.1. Strawberry market volume in tons
4.2. Average selling price of strawberries in Russia, RUB / kg
4.3. Description of the calculation method
4.4. Strawberry market forecast, baseline and optimistic until 2024
4.5. Forecast of the average price of strawberries, baseline and optimistic, RUB / kg, until 2024
4.6. The main producers of strawberries in Russia
4.7. Strawberry imports by country
4.8. Strawberry imports by manufacturer
4.9. Strawberry import by recipient company in Russia
4.10. Consumption of strawberries in Russia by high-income group of the population, tonnes in the Federal District
4.11. Sales of strawberries by outlets (kg per outlet)
5. Blueberry market
5.1. Blueberry market volume in tons
5.2. Average selling price of blueberries in Russia, RUB / kg
5.3. Description of the calculation method
5.4. Blueberry Market Forecast, Baseline and Optimistic until 2024
5.5. Forecast of the average price of blueberries, basic and optimistic, RUB / kg, until 2024
5.6. Main blueberry producers in Russia
5.7. Blueberry imports by country
5.8. Blueberry import by manufacturer
5.9. Blueberry import by recipient company in Russia
5.10. Consumption of blueberries in Russia by high-income group of the population, tonnes in the Federal District
5.11. Sales of blueberries by outlets (kg per outlet)
6. Blackberry market
6.1. Blackberry market volume in tons
6.2. Average selling price of blackberries in Russia, RUB / kg
6.3. Description of the calculation method
6.4. Blackberry market forecast, base and optimistic until 2024
6.5. Forecast of the average price of blackberries, basic and optimistic, RUB / kg, until 2024
6.6. The main producers of blackberries in Russia
6.7. Blackberry imports by country
6.8. Blackberry import by manufacturer
6.9. Blackberry import by recipient company in Russia
6.10. Blackberry consumption in Russia by high-income group of the population, tonnes in the Federal District
6.11. Sales of blackberries by outlets (kg per outlet)
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