Russian Berries & Fruits Market Overview, 2018-2024

How much on average did high-income consumers spend on berries and fruits in Russia in 2020? We answer this and other questions in our overview, which includes a number of indicators both for the market as a whole and for some product categories. In this publication, we share only some of the research results, and you can find the full structure of the report at the end of the article.

The overview includes external data integrated in AGATA. It helps manufacturing companies make informed decisions about all 4Ps of the marketing mix. We, in turn, collect external data at the request of the client.

As for per capita spending, in the Far Eastern Federal District, consumers with a high income accounted for 7.989 rubles, while residents of the Ural Federal District spent on average about 6.024 rubles on berries and fruits in 2020. The lowest amount is in the Volga Federal District - only 4.543 rubles per year per consumer.

The main imports of raspberries come from three countries: the Republic of Moldova, Belarus, Mexico - 92% of imports. Supplies from Kenya, China, Kyrgyzstan and Mexico are actively growing - the growth is more than 100%. Despite the fact that the share of the Republic of Moldova has grown significantly over the past three years - from 16% to 34%, in absolute terms, imports decreased by 268 thousand tons.

A similar picture is observed with Belarus. So, the share of the country for the period from 2018 to 2020 has almost doubled. However, deliveries in tons fell by 83%.

As part of the forecast of the raspberry market, the basic scenario of the development of the Russian economy was used. The forecast was based on data on changes in the agricultural market in physical terms and the consumer market in monetary terms.

The optimistic scenario assumes that the market dynamics will be based on the correction of the data of the Ministry of Economic Development, taking into account the historical data on the rate of market growth and the forecasted indicators of the Ministry of Economic Development for the consumer market.

According to our calculations, under an optimistic development scenario, in the period 2021-2024, the volume of the raspberry market in Russia will show insignificant growth rates and will reach 184,75 thousand tons in 2024.

Based on the Rosstat data, the average selling price of strawberries in the Russian Federation in 2021 was 1.199,60 rubles per kg, which is almost half a percent lower than the price of last year, when it was possible to buy strawberries for an average of 1.203,86 rubles/kg. The largest jump in cost occurred in 2019, when the price per kilogram rose from 841 to 1.151 rubles. Price dynamics 2018-2020 built on the basis of the growth rate of prices for imported products.

According to the FCS, the main countries importing strawberries are Belarus - 24%, Azerbaijan - 5% and Egypt - 4%. At the same time, supplies of the Republic of Belarus to Russia for the period 2018-2020 decreased by 2 times

According to the optimistic scenario based on the data of the country's economic development, from 2020 to 2024 the strawberry market in Russia will grow 1,84 times, on average 15% -17% growth rate annually, and by the end of 2024 it will amount to 553 thousand tons.