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Avocado Market Overview in Russia, 2018-2024

MARKETS

The avocado market in Russia shows an increase of +33% in tonnes and may reach 118 billion rubles by 2024

Avocado Market Overview in Russia, 2018-2024

MARKETS
The avocado market in Russia shows an increase of +33% in tonnes and may reach 118 billion rubles by 2024
повышение выручки предприятия на рынке парфюмерии и косметики
An important part of work in the AGATA algorithm is the analysis of market data, on the basis of which strategic planning is carried out. Data allows you to see the real picture of the market and determine the participation of each source of growth in achieving the result.

We have recently prepared an overview of the avocado market in Russia, for which we have developed our own methodology. In this article, you can find data on the volume and forecast of the Russian avocado market for 2018-2024.

Avocado market size

In 2020, the volume of the Russian avocado market exceeded 47.3 K tons in physical terms, which is 33% higher than in 2019, when the volume was 35.6 K tons. CAGR for 3 years was 27%, with an increase of 18 K tons from 2018.
Volume of the avocado market in the Russian Federation, 2018-2020, tons

Diagram 1. Volume of the avocado market in the Russian Federation, 2018-2020, tons

Source: FCS data, taking into account the EAEU supplies
In monetary terms, in 2020, the consumption of avocados in Russia reached 20.9 billion rubles, which is 49% more than in the previous year (12.5 B rubles). CAGR for 3 years was 54%. Market size has increased by almost 11 B rubles since 2018.*

There is no data on domestic production of avocados. As a result, the import values according to the TN VED code (nomenclature of goods subject to foreign economic activity code) were taken as the market size: 080440000

*Market size was calculated as the difference between domestic production and exports,

taking into account imports

Value of the avocado market in the Russian Federation, 2018-2020, million rubles
Diagram 2. Value of the avocado market in the Russian Federation, 2018-2020, M rubles
Source: FCS data, taking into account the EAEU supplies

Market structure

In 2020, the largest share in the consumption of the avocado market in Russia was occupied by green avocados - 93% or about 44 K tons. Its share has slightly decreased since 2018, then it was 95%. However, in physical terms, the volume has grown significantly: by about 17 K tons.

Share of Hass avocado for the period 2018-2020 increased from 5% to 7%, or from 1.4 K tons to 3.3 K tons, or more than 2 times.

*The market volume for Hass and green avocado was calculated based on the structure of avocado imports excluding data for the EAEU. Then the obtained shares of each type of avocado in the import structure were superimposed on the volume of the entire avocado market, taking into account the EAEU data.

Structure of the avocado market in the Russian Federation, by type, 2018-2020
Diagram 3. Structure of the avocado market in the Russian Federation, by type, 2018-2020
Source: data from the import database by counterparties, excluding the EAEU

Avocado market forecast

Within the framework of constructing a forecast for the avocado market, both as a whole and for each type, the basic scenario of the development of the Russian economy was used. The forecast was based on data on changes in the consumer market, both in terms of inflation and growth in physical volume. Based on the available data from the Ministry of Economic Development, it was decided to make two scenarios for market development: baseline and optimistic.
forecast

Baseline scenario

The baseline scenario assumes that the market dynamics will fully comply with the data of the Ministry of Economic Development. According to the baseline development scenario, the volume of the avocado market may grow to 50.16 K tons in physical terms in 2021 (6% growth from 2020). However, the market volume will remain at this mark until 2024.
BASIC forecast of the avocado market in the Russian Federation, 2021-2024, tons 

Diagram 4. Baseline forecast of the avocado market in the Russian Federation, 2021-2024, tons

Source: own calculations based on data from the Ministry of Economic Development
At the same time, in monetary terms, the market will show 21% growth in 2021, reaching 22.5 B rubles, and in 2024 the volume of avocado consumption will exceed 25.4 B rubles, remaining within the range of 4-5% growth per year. All this is within the framework of the baseline scenario for the development of the Russian economy.
BASIC forecast of the avocado market in the Russian Federation, 2021-2024, million
Diagram 5. Baseline forecast of the avocado market in the Russian Federation, 2021-2024, M rubles
Source: own calculations based on data from the Ministry of Economic Development
Forecast

Optimistic scenario

The optimistic scenario assumes that the market dynamics will be based on the correction of the data of the Ministry of Economic Development, taking into account the historical data on the market growth rate and the projected indicators for the consumer market.

According to the optimistic scenario, the volume of the Russian avocado market may grow to 62.8 K tons in 2021 and reach 146.5 K tons in physical terms by 2024, maintaining a CAGR of 33%.
OPTIMISTIC forecast of the avocado market in the Russian Federation, 2021-2024, tons
Diagram 6. OPTIMISTIC forecast of the avocado market in the Russian Federation, 2021-2024, tons
Source: own calculations based on data from the Ministry of Economic Development
In monetary terms, the growth of the avocado market in Russia will be more significant: from 23.3 B in 2020 to 35.4 in 2021 (+ 52%), and to 118.4 B rubles by 2024 at a CAGR of 50%. This scenario is possible while maintaining the current rates of market growth.
OPTIMISTIC forecast of the avocado market in the Russian Federation, 2021-2024, million rubles
Diagram 7. OPTIMISTIC forecast of the avocado market in the Russian Federation, 2021-2024, M rubles
Source: own calculations based on data from the Ministry of Economic Development
In addition to the above indicators, for the most efficient use of AGATA algorithms, we have also collected the following statistics:

  • Average selling price of avocado
  • Market forecast for avocado types
  • The volume and seasonality of imports by type
  • Shares of importing countries
  • Shares of importers-manufacturers (companies)
  • Avocado recipient companies in Russia (by specialists, by retail)
  • Avocado consumption by high-income consumer group, by federal district
  • Avocado sales by outlets (kg per outlet), by federal district
The advantage of collecting external and internal statistics for AGATA is that our algorithms require a clear, predefined set of data. This allows you to speed up and greatly simplify the collection of market analytics.
AGATA algorithm brief presentation
You can find out about the possibility of demo access to AGATA or get more detailed information on the avocado market by mail

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