Avocado Market Overview in Russia, 2018-2024

An important part of work in the AGATA algorithm is the analysis of market data, on the basis of which strategic planning is carried out. Data allows you to see the real picture of the market and determine the participation of each source of growth in achieving the result.

We have recently prepared an overview of the avocado market in Russia, for which we have developed our own methodology. In this article, you can find data on the volume and forecast of the Russian avocado market for 2018-2024.

In 2020, the volume of the Russian avocado market exceeded 47.3 K tons in physical terms, which is 33% higher than in 2019, when the volume was 35.6 K tons. CAGR for 3 years was 27%, with an increase of 18 K tons from 2018.

Within the framework of constructing a forecast for the avocado market, both as a whole and for each type, the basic scenario of the development of the Russian economy was used. The forecast was based on data on changes in the consumer market, both in terms of inflation and growth in physical volume. Based on the available data from the Ministry of Economic Development, it was decided to make two scenarios for market development: baseline and optimistic.

The baseline scenario assumes that the market dynamics will fully comply with the data of the Ministry of Economic Development. According to the baseline development scenario, the volume of the avocado market may grow to 50.16 K tons in physical terms in 2021 (6% growth from 2020). However, the market volume will remain at this mark until 2024.

At the same time, in monetary terms, the market will show 21% growth in 2021, reaching 22.5 B rubles, and in 2024 the volume of avocado consumption will exceed 25.4 B rubles, remaining within the range of 4-5% growth per year. All this is within the framework of the baseline scenario for the development of the Russian economy.

The optimistic scenario assumes that the market dynamics will be based on the correction of the data of the Ministry of Economic Development, taking into account the historical data on the market growth rate and the projected indicators for the consumer market.

According to the optimistic scenario, the volume of the Russian avocado market may grow to 62.8 K tons in 2021 and reach 146.5 K tons in physical terms by 2024, maintaining a CAGR of 33%.

In monetary terms, the growth of the avocado market in Russia will be more significant: from 23.3 B in 2020 to 35.4 in 2021 (+ 52%), and to 118.4 B rubles by 2024 at a CAGR of 50%. This scenario is possible while maintaining the current rates of market growth.

In addition to the above indicators, for the most efficient use of AGATA algorithms, we have also collected the following statistics:

• Average selling price of avocado
• Market forecast for avocado types
• The volume and seasonality of imports by type
• Shares of importing countries
• Shares of importers-manufacturers (companies)
• Avocado recipient companies in Russia (by specialists, by retail)
• Avocado consumption by high-income consumer group, by federal district
• Avocado sales by outlets (kg per outlet), by federal district